Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Indian Pharma - Relative Valuation Screen

Indian Pharma Relative Valuation Screen
Dr. Reddy is available at a steep 35% discount to the sector average valuation
Lupin and Sun Pharma trade at premiums to the sector average valuation
It seems there is higher premium to companies with better near term growth prospects. Lupin and Sun's growth in the near term will be supported by high value generic launches  (gGlivec and gGlumetza) under 180-days exclusivity. 

Friday, February 5, 2016

Novartis - Glivec Generics Impact: Consensus Estimates Are Way Too Pessimistic

Consensus is significantly overestimating potential adverse impact on Novartis earning post entry of Glivec generics.
Consensus fails to appreciate the details with regard to competitive dynamics.
Novartis 2016 earnings are highly sensitive to performance of Glivec. I see a potential 8-12 percent upward revision to consensus EPS estimate for FY 2016.
Novartis's (NYSE:NVS) best-selling drug, Glivec ($4.6b annual sales - 2015E), will be open to generic competition in the US from February 1, 2016. Sun Pharma (OTC:SMPQY), which has the first to file 180-days exclusivity on Glivec, is on schedule to launch a generic copy. Sun has received the final nod from the USFDA for its generic version. Currently, analyst estimate Read More....