Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Amylin bid may go further high - $36


There is a takeover battle for Amylin, and it seems it is going to get further intense. Amylin has already rejected a $3.5b bid.  The bid can go much higher atleast 50% higher from current levels.  The most precious asset in Amylin’s portfolio is Exenatide, around which it has three formulations, two in the market and one under development.  The once monthly suspension is in PhIII, while the twice daily (Byetta) and once weekly versions (Bydureon) has reached the market. We expect peak sales of $3b for its exenatide based portfolio, and based on a 3x revenue multiple,  and accounting for payments to Alkermes and the debt/Lilly, the bid should go by 50%.  AstraZeneca /Novartis  may be a potential buyer