Friday, June 22, 2012

Bydureon Cannibalizing Byetta - Future outlook of GLP-1 market

Bydureon  is the third GLP-1 in the diabetes space and it has been around 4 months since the drug has been launched in the US markets.  The launch trajectory so far is not as good as Victoza or Byetta, but it is much better when compared to the  other anti-diabetes products which are not first in class ( Lingagliptin in US - the third DPP-IV) .   

Bydureon launch  has revived the growth of the GLP-1 class. Prior to Bydureon launch, the GLP-1 class  was growing @ 12%, but now growing @20%. Among the GLP-1's Bydureon has now about 8.5% market share, 37% with Byetta and 57% with Victoza.

Impact of Bydureon launch on Byetta
Bydureon launch has helped the exenatide franchise regain the lost momentum. From degrowing annually @ -15%, the franchise is now returning to growth. Bydureon was launched in February this year and over the period, it has cannibalized Byetta market share by 20%. The exenatide franchise now holds 43% share, while Victoza has 57% share.  We expect Bydureon uptake to get stronger and we should see majority share going to Bydureon over time.

Future Outlook
We will see intensified competition going forward. GSK's Albiglutide and SAN's lixisenatide (Lyxumia) are expected to be launched in 2013. Albiglutide is less efficacious than approved GLP-1's but by virtue of a better safety profile would be able to garner a niche. Lyxumia on account of its superior post prandial impact, would be the preferred GLP-1 in combination with insulin. Lyxumia / Lantus FDC should reach the market in 2014, while Novo's IdegLira will reach earlier. We expect the insulin dependent patient market to be equally shared between Lyxumia and Victoza among the GLP-1's. 

Those patients who are on oral anti-diabetic would prefer a Bydureon / Albiglutide while Byetta over time should be completely cannibalized. Bydureon once monthly injection with a superior delivery device is expected to reach the market by 2014 would eventually take the larger share of the GLP-1 market in the non-insulin dependent patients.

Other GLP-1's to watch out for include implants from Intarcia, once monthly modifed exendin from Hanmi Pharmaceuticals (Korea).

Potential Concerns with GLP-1
Cancer is a potential concern with this class of drug and the long term data would be consistently reviewed to see if there are no cancer effects. V