Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Will Lupin post record high Q4 - FY-14 Earnings?

Driven by multiple new launches in the US, Lupin should post record high profits for Q4-FY14. Profit for the quarter should touch around INR 700 crores primarily driven by continued benefit from First to file launches and a few launches which are low competition opportunities.
First to file launches include 
1) gTrizvir ( INR 70 crore in incremental profits from 3 months of exclusiivity versus a few days in previous quarter )
2) gNiaspan (INR 40 crores in incremental profits from 9 days of  exclusivity sales in the current quarter versus none in previous quarter)
3) gCymbalta (INR 40 crores in incremental profits  from 3 months of exclusivity versus just a few days in the previous quarter)

Low competition and niche opportunities include
1) Trilipix (Incremental profit of INR 20 crores)
2) Mycobutin, Monodox and Cipro ( Incremental profit of INR 30 crores versus none in the previous quarter)

Hence based on incremental profit contribution from the US business, Lupin should be able to add atleast INR 200 crores to its bottom line while not  accounting for any growth in other business segments.

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