Thursday, May 1, 2014

Long acting Copaxone grabs one third of the total Copaxone (glatiramer acetate) market in the US

Teva reported its Q1 -2014 earnings and the highlight was an impressive uptake  of the recently launched thrice weekly version of Copaxone.  As on April 28th, Copaxone thrice weekly version was able  to replace approximately one third of the Copaxone market.  Hence the  market is much  less lucrative for generic launches which is believed to be around  the the corner (subject to USFDA approval). On an annualized basis the opportunity for branded Copaxone now will be $2 billion as against $3 billion earlier
Three generic players (Synthon, Natco/Mylan, Sandoz/Momenta) are expected to contest for a market share. Since Copaxone patents are being reviewed by the US supreme court any generic launch upon  USFDA approval will be considered at risk. Hence generic players will have limited strength in terms of discounting their version which will lead to restricted market share. Assuming a 40 -50 percent market share for generics and 50 percent price discount the  potential market opportunity is now worth about $450m which will be share among three players.

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