Friday, February 5, 2016

Novartis - Glivec Generics Impact: Consensus Estimates Are Way Too Pessimistic

Consensus is significantly overestimating potential adverse impact on Novartis earning post entry of Glivec generics.
Consensus fails to appreciate the details with regard to competitive dynamics.
Novartis 2016 earnings are highly sensitive to performance of Glivec. I see a potential 8-12 percent upward revision to consensus EPS estimate for FY 2016.
Novartis's (NYSE:NVS) best-selling drug, Glivec ($4.6b annual sales - 2015E), will be open to generic competition in the US from February 1, 2016. Sun Pharma (OTC:SMPQY), which has the first to file 180-days exclusivity on Glivec, is on schedule to launch a generic copy. Sun has received the final nod from the USFDA for its generic version. Currently, analyst estimate Read More....